US Confidential Documents Reveal Major Losses in Ukrainian War

Reuters was unable to independently authenticate the documents, and some countries, including Russia and Ukraine, have questioned their veracity, while US officials claim that some files appear to have been altered.

A conflict that could extend beyond 2023

An assessment dated February 23, 2023, titled “The Battle for the Donbass Region is Likely Heading for a Stalemate Throughout 2023,” states that Russia is unlikely to capture this part of eastern Ukraine. According to this assessment, Russia’s attrition campaign in the Donbass region is likely heading for a stalemate, thwarting Moscow’s goal of capturing the entire region in 2023. These tactics have weakened Russian forces and ammunition stocks to a level that, in the absence of an unexpected turnaround, may exhaust Russian units and frustrate Moscow’s war objectives, resulting in a prolonged war beyond 2023.

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Significant losses for Russian and Ukrainian forces

According to an assessment compiled by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, Russia has suffered between 189,500 and 223,000 total losses, including between 35,500 and 43,000 combat deaths and between 154,000 and 180,000 injuries. Ukraine has suffered between 124,500 and 131,000 total losses, including between 15,500 and 17,500 combat deaths and between 109,000 and 113,500 combat injuries, according to the document titled “Russia/Ukraine – Assessment of Combat Sustainability and Attrition.” The figures are about 10 times higher than the loss figures published by Moscow or Kyiv.

The documents show that while Russia has overall numerical superiority in some areas, Ukraine has more tanks and armored troop carriers (ATCs) on the ground than Russia. According to the Defense Intelligence Agency, Russia has lost 2,048 tanks and 3,900 ATCs, while Ukraine has lost 468 tanks and 1,020 ATCs. Ukraine has deployed 802 tanks and 3,498 ATCs, while Russia has 419 tanks and 2,928 ATCs on the ground.

Washington’s concerns

The US documents also show Washington’s concerns about deep Ukrainian strikes in Russia – and even potentially on Moscow – due to the impact such attacks could have on China’s position. “China would likely respond more forcefully and increase the scale and scope of the material it is willing to provide to Russia if Ukrainian strikes hit a location of high strategic value or appeared to target high-ranking Russian leaders,” said what appears to be a compilation of US intelligence assessments.

Reuters reviewed more than 50 documents, labeled “Secret” and “Top Secret,” which first appeared on social media in March and allegedly reveal details about Ukrainian military vulnerabilities and information about allies such as Israel, South Korea, and Turkey.