Fear of earthquakes prompts hundreds of thousands of Istanbul residents to seek safer homes

Since the tremors that devastated the southeast of the country on February 6, causing over 50,000 deaths, anxiety has gripped the metropolis and revived memories of the 1999 earthquake that claimed 17,000 lives in the region. Tens of thousands of buildings collapsed during the February earthquake, leading to accusations of lax construction standards throughout Turkey and fueling concerns about the sturdiness of many aging buildings in Istanbul.

Increase in demolition and reconstruction requests

Since the earthquake, the number of requests in Istanbul to demolish and rebuild at-risk housing – home to nearly 500,000 people – has tripled. The rush has also exacerbated already high rental housing prices. According to a 2019 report by seismologists, a 7.5-magnitude earthquake – similar to the one in February – would at least moderately damage 17% of Istanbul’s 1.17 million buildings, which span both sides of the Bosphorus Strait, between Europe and Asia.

However, seismologists have stated that the February disaster has not changed the likelihood of an earthquake in Istanbul, as the two areas are located on different fault lines. Nevertheless, many residents say they feel trapped by a cost-of-living crisis after inflation hit a 24-year high of over 85% in October and with fewer prospects of finding work elsewhere.

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Impact on the Turkish economy

Any disaster in Istanbul would have a significant impact on the Turkish economy, given that the Marmara region as a whole accounts for about 41% of the national GDP. Rental prices in Turkey jumped 190% in February compared to the previous year, with a 138% increase in Istanbul, according to the Bahcesehir University Economic and Social Research Center (BETAM), well above the consumer price inflation of 55% in February.

Many of those who cannot move have instead sought reassurance by requesting studies to determine the safety of their buildings, with 70% of buildings constructed before the building code was significantly strengthened in 2000. Some 1.5 million homes are considered at risk in the city, Urban Planning Minister Murat Kurum said this week. According to official data, more than three people live on average in each household, meaning up to 5 million people live in these properties.

“Unfortunately, the fear of this recent earthquake has not been enough to push people to find a compromise and agree to rebuild their homes,” said Ali Kurt, general manager of Istanbul municipality’s housing agency, KIPTAS. “People need to accept that their homes are at risk.”

Over 150,000 requests have also been submitted to the municipality for assessments of their buildings’ sturdiness, with processing expected to take a year. However, fear of what these tests will reveal is holding many people back.