Russia Constructs Significant Fortifications in Ukraine in Anticipation of Counter-Offensive

The defenses visible in satellite images taken by Capella Space are part of a large network of Russian fortifications extending from western Russia through eastern Ukraine to Crimea, built in anticipation of a major Ukrainian attack.

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained in the West to use various military equipment on the battlefield in a combined manner, in preparation for a counter-offensive that Ukrainian officials say they anticipate when their forces are ready.

Russian Defenses Could Complicate Ukraine’s Task

Six military experts said the defenses, mainly built following Ukraine’s rapid advances in the fall, could make the task more difficult for Ukraine this time and that progress would depend on its ability to effectively conduct complex combined operations.

“It’s not a question of numbers for the Ukrainians. It’s: can they conduct this kind of war, combined operations?” said Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). “The Russians have shown they can’t do it, and they’ve gone back to their old Soviet method of attrition.”

A Ukrainian counter-offensive could change the dynamics of a war that has turned into a bloody battle of attrition, and military experts believe the length of the front could stretch Russian defenses.

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Pressure on Ukraine to Regain Control of Territory

Ukraine may not receive another large injection of armored material from the West anytime soon, putting pressure on Kyiv to regain as much territory as possible in case military support begins to wane, according to military experts.

Satellite images analyzed by Reuters show that most of the Russian construction took place after November, when its forces withdrew from the southern city of Kherson, and both sides sought to consolidate their positions during the winter months.

Russian Fortifications Could Be Stretched by Length of Front

Despite the network of defenses, four experts believe that Russia would be stretched by the length of the front, a vulnerability that Kyiv would seek to exploit with feints, distractions, surprises, and operational speed.

Oleksandr Musiyenko, a military analyst in Kyiv, said the south is of vital strategic importance for Ukraine. In addition to disrupting Russia’s land corridor to occupied Crimea, significant advances in the south could bring the peninsula within artillery range, he said.

The south is also home to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, which has been occupied since March last year and inactive since September. It previously supplied a fifth of Ukraine’s electricity needs.