Alternative for Germany (AfD) Gains in Polls Worry Traditional Parties

EUROPE – Currently, AfD is achieving 17 to 19% nationally, a record for the party that now rivals Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats for second place in some polls, up from fifth place in the 2021 elections where it garnered 10.3% of the vote. AfD’s rise, which criticizes the German government for high levels of immigration, soaring inflation, and an expensive ecological transition, strikes a sensitive chord in Germany due to the country’s Nazi past.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is gaining ground in polls, causing concern for traditional political parties. This image was generated by an artificial intelligence for illustration purposes. © Fernand1521 / Midjourney

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Published on June 08, 2023 – 07:08 GMT +02:00

The far-right party has also benefited from internal conflicts within Scholz’s tripartite coalition. Far-right parties have advanced across Europe. In France, the far-right has become a more serious contender at the ballot box, while in Italy and Sweden, they are now part of the government.

Immigration and Ecological Transition at the Heart of Concerns

Immigration is resurfacing in the political debate in Germany. Michael Kretschmer, the prime minister of the eastern German state of Saxony and a member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), said last week that the number of migrants was “too high”, calling for limits on the number of refugees allowed and reductions in benefits. AfD, which disputes that human activity is a cause of climate change, has also tapped into some voters’ concerns about the cost of the energy transition.

“We are the only party that would not form a coalition with these dangerous Greens,” said Tino Chrupalla, AfD leader.

In the eastern German states of Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg, which will hold regional elections in 2024, AfD is on track to win the most votes for the first time, with polls showing its support at 23-28%. Analysts believe that voters in the East, where party loyalties are less well-established, have been more receptive to AfD partly because they blame the traditional parties that have alternated in power over the years for the lower incomes that persist in the East, three decades after reunification.

Implications for Coalitions and Traditional Parties

Even if AfD is kept out of power, its rise has siphoned votes from other parties, forcing them to form more difficult-to-manage coalitions at regional and national levels, particularly in the east where AfD is strongest. Some believe that AfD is benefiting from a wave of discontent due to a convergence of crises that will not last. Inflation has already dropped from its peak, and the very high energy prices during the winter, fueled by the war in Ukraine, have eased.

“The chancellor is optimistic that if we do a good job and solve the problems of this country… then we won’t have to worry about this issue for long,” said Wolfgang Buechner, spokesperson for the Scholz government.

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